LIGHT CRUDE

Light Crude


Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

DLF

Presently we are witnessing a fast retracement to wave (ii)  of the extended wave 5.

Whether,  it is wave 1 or A  there is a possible buying opportunity close to 191.564  with stop loss below 173.


Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

COPPER UPDATE

  Copper has acheived almost 50% retracement level  as suggested in the previous posts.  Further move depends upon the key levels marked on the chart.  Dominant view is downwards as sugggested previously.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

COPPER ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS

Presently copper is in Wave C.  Wave C has already extended more than 1.618 times of W:A  next target could be  the Fibo extension A*2.618  which is around 2.460. 


Looking closely into the wave C . It has completed W C:3  and presently W C:4 is running which is likley to retrace min of 38.2 and could be a complex wave as W C:2 was simple which  has retraced almost 61.8%. 


 As W C:3 is extended   Golden section suggests  Wave C:5 likely to end at 2.599.

As of now  correction is under way one can keep a close eye on levels between   3.585 to 3.949,  where a very good short possibility exists.


Also please see a Wolve Wave Running in  Wave 4 ( 60 min TF). Suggesting a possible TGT of W C:4  where shorts can be initiated.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS OF GOLD

HOW DO YOU HANDLE YOUR ADVERSITY ?

A young woman went to her mother and told her about her life and how things were so hard for her. She did not know how she was going to make it and wanted to give up. She was tired of fighting and struggling.

It seemed that, as one problem was solved, a new one arose. Her mother took her to the kitchen. She filled three pots with water and placed each on a high fire. Soon the pots came to a boil. In the first, she placed carrots, in the second she placed eggs, and in the last she placed ground coffee beans.

She let them sit and boil, without saying a word. In about twenty minutes, she turned off the burners. She fished the carrots out and placed them in a bowl. She pulled the eggs out and placed them in a bowl. Then she ladled the coffee out and placed it in a bowl. Turning to her daughter, she asked, "Tell me, what do you see?"

"Carrots, eggs, and coffee," the young woman replied.

The mother brought her closer and asked her to feel the carrots. She did and noted that they were soft. She then asked her to take an egg and break it. After pulling off the shell, she observed the hard-boiled egg. Finally, she asked her to sip the coffee. The daughter smiled as she tasted its rich aroma. The daughter then asked, "What does it mean, mother?"

Her mother explained that each of these objects had faced the same adversity - boiling water - but each reacted differently. The carrot went in strong, hard and unrelenting. However, after being subjected to the boiling water, it softened and became weak.

The egg had been fragile. Its thin outer shell had protected its liquid interior. But, after sitting through the boiling water, its inside became hardened! The ground coffee beans were unique, however. After they were in the boiling water, they had changed the water.

"Which are you?" the mother asked her daughter. "When adversity knocks on your door, how do you respond?

Are you a carrot, an egg, or a coffee bean?" Think of this: Which am I?

Am I the carrot that seems strong but, with pain and adversity, do I wilt and become soft and lose my strength?

Am I the egg that starts with a malleable heart, but changes with the heat? Did I have a fluid spirit but, after a death, a breakup, or a financial hardship, does my shell look the same, but on the inside am I bitter and tough with a stiff spirit and a hardened heart?

Or am I like the coffee bean? The bean actually changes the hot water, the very circumstance that brings the pain. When the water gets hot, it releases the fragrance and flavour.

If you are like the bean, when things are at their worst, you get better and change the situation around you.

When the hours are the darkest and trials are their greatest, do you elevate to another level?

SHREE RENUKA SUGARS

Renuka Sugar is displaying a Dragon formation.  And it has given a BO above its Head.  Target can be 78 and 92. 

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

MAKE A DIFFERENCE TODAY

There was a man taking a morning walk at  the beach. 

He saw that along with the morning tide came hundreds of starfish and when the tide receded, they were left behind and with the morning sun rays, they would die. 

The tide was fresh and the starfish were alive. The man took a few steps, picked one and threw it into the water. He did that repeatedly. 

Right behind him there was another person who couldn't understand what this man was doing. He caught up with him and asked, "What are you doing? There are hundreds of starfish. How many can you help? What difference does it make?" 

This  man did not reply,  took two more steps, picked up another one and threw it into the water, and said,  "It makes a difference to this one."

STATE BANK OF INDIA

State Bank of India has made a double bottom and RSI is showing positive divergence.  Indicating a possibility of up move from here on.

Posted alongside is a EOD chart for SBIN.


CMP: 2213.10

One can buy here with SL below 2160.  Above 2356  TGT can be 2474 > 2663.

Alternatively,  Here is a short term chart for State Bank of India, the trend is still down.  A move past 2248 will turn the trend up in the short term.

One may take entry once the price closes above 2248.



HAPPY TRADING !
SHEKHAR

The Tea Cup

There was a couple who used to go to England to shop in the beautiful stores. They both liked antiques and pottery and especially teacups. This was their twenty-fifth wedding anniversary.

One day in this beautiful shop they saw a beautiful teacup.They said, "May we see that? We've never seen one quite so beautiful."

As the lady handed it to them, suddenly the teacup spoke. "You don't understand," it said. "I haven't always been a teacup.

There was a time when I was red and I was clay. My master took me and rolled me and patted me over and over and I yelled out, "let me alone", but he only smiled, "Not yet."

"Then I was placed on a spinning wheel," the teacup said, "and suddenly I was spun around and around and around.Stop it! I'm getting dizzy! I screamed. But the master only nodded and said, 'Not yet.'

Then he put me in the oven. I never felt such heat. I wondered why he wanted to burn me, and I yelled and knocked at the door. I could see him through the opening and I could read his lips as He shook his head, 'Not yet.'

Finally the door opened, he put me on the shelf, and I began to cool. 'There, that's better,' I said. And he brushed and painted me all over. The fumes were horrible. I thought I would gag. 'Stop it, stop it!' I cried. He only nodded, 'Not yet.'

Then suddenly he put me back into the oven, not like the first one. This was twice as hot and I knew I would suffocate. I begged. I pleaded. I screamed. I cried. All the time I could see him through the opening nodding his head saying, 'Not yet.'

Then I knew there wasn't any hope. I would never make it. I was ready to give up. But the door opened and he took me out and placed me on the shelf. One hour later he handed me a mirror and said, 'Look at yourself.And I did. I said, 'That's not me; that couldn't be me. It's beautiful. I'm beautiful.'

'I want you to remember, then,' he said, 'I know it hurts to be rolled and patted, but if I had left you alone, you'd have dried up.

I know it made you dizzy to spin around on the wheel, but if I had stopped, you would have crumbled. I knew it hurt and was hot and disagreeable in the oven, but if I hadn't put you there, you would have cracked.

I know the fumes were bad when I brushed and painted you all over, but if I hadn't done that, you never would have hardened; you would not have had any color in your life. And if I hadn't put you back in that second oven,you wouldn't survive for very long because the hardness would not have held. Now you are a finished product. You are what I had in mind when I first began with you.

BHARTI AIRTEL

BHARTI AIRTEL EOD

BHARTI 30 MIN CHART

  After the breakout  Bharti is on a  pullback mode.  330-340 is a crucial zone for Bharti as 200 SMA,   trendline support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement comes in this zone.


It needs careful watch and one can take a long call in this region as and when it comes closer to 325 -340 ranges  with an SL below 308.  We can see higher levels in mid term horizon.


Short term trend is still down  but the volume activity at the lower levels suggest that  we may see some kind of bottom formation /reversal in the coming days. 

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

TCS

TCS 30 MIN TF

TCS seems to have hit the roadblock at 1250. On EOD basis it has seen a sharp fall at 1250 in the second attempt, a break below the TL will see more fall and may trigger bigger fall as the Weekly charts show -ve divergence closing below 1032 could Target 966 > 899 > 817. The above view holds until it closes convincingly above 1250.

TCS EOD

Short term charts {30 min} in fact shows it to be in a range and any move above 1245 or below 1140 can confirm the direction.

Action: Short immediate with SL above 1250 on closing basis. Or wait for break of TL on EOD charts which is somewhere close to 1150

CMP:  1192.1


Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

TCS WEEKLY

HAPPY RAM NAVAMI !

Dragons in the Market !

Here is a pattern that was recognized some time ago. The thing about it is that it clearly identifies elements of support and resistance. This pattern identifies short term reversals in the trend which are very tradable.

If you look at the first chart which labels the key elements. The Back will always rise to test the Bottom of the tail-hook (support/resistance). After the second leg is in place you can buy the breakout of the Back price.

Now here is an interesting point that breakout will rise to the level of the top of the tail (support/resistance). If the bottom of the head does not come down and violate the top of the back we have a high probability of continuation.

Check this out for yourself before trading this setup.

Happy Trading !
RainMaker

Enjoy the coffee instead…….

A group of alumni, highly established in their careers, got together to visit their old university professor.

Conversation soon turned into complaints about stress in work and life.

Offering his guests coffee, the professor went to the kitchen and returned with a large pot of coffee and an assortment of cups porcelain, plastic, glass, crystal, some plain looking, some expensive, some exquisite - telling them to help themselves to hot coffee.

When all the students had a cup of coffee in hand, the professor said: 'If you noticed, all the nice looking expensive cups were taken up, leaving behind the plain and cheap ones.. While it is but normal for you to want only the best for yourselves, that is the source of your problems and stress. What all of you really wanted was coffee, not the cup, but you consciously went for the best cups and were eyeing each other's cups.

Now if life is coffee, then the jobs, money and position in society are the cups. They are just tools to hold and contain Life, but the quality of Life doesn't change. Some times, by concentrating only on the cup, we fail to enjoy the coffee in it.'

Don't let the cups drive you.. Enjoy the coffee instead…….

NIFTY FORMING HEAD & SHOULDER

Nifty is forming a possible H&S pattern on hourly chart.    A breakout above 5600 will confirm the pattern and Nifty can TGT approx 5900 NS.

Happy Trading !
RainMaker

FORGIVENESS IS GIVING UP MY RIGHT TO HATE YOU FOR HURTING ME

"I was 16 years old and living with my parents at the institute my grandfather had founded 18 miles outside of Durban , South Africa , in the middle of the sugar plantations. We were deep in the country and had no neighbors, so my two sis ters and I would always look forward to going to town to visit friends or go to the movies.

One day, my father asked me to drive him to town for an all-day conference, and I jumped at the chance.Since I was going to town, my mother gave me a list of groceries she needed and, since I had all day in town, my father ask me to take care of several pending chores, such as getting the car serviced. When I dropped my father off that morning, he said, ' I will meet you here at 5:00 p.m., and we will go home together.'

After hurriedly completing my chores, I went straight to the nearest movie theatre. I got so engrossed in a John Wayne double-feature that I forgot the time. It was 5:30 before I remembered. By the time I ran to the garage and got the car and hurried to where my father was waiting for me, it was almost 6:00.

He anxiously asked me, ' Why were you late? ' I was so ashamed of telling him I was watching a John Wayne western movie that I said, ' The car wasn't ready, so I had to wait, not realizing that he had already called the garage. When he caught me in the lie, he said: 'There' s something wrong in the way I brought you up that didn' t give you the confidence to tell me the truth. In order to figure out where I went wrong with you, I'm going to walk home 18 miles and think about it. '

So, dressed in his suit and dress shoes, he began to walk home in the dark on mostly unpaved, unlit roads. I couldn't leave him, so for five-and-a-half hours I drove behind him, watching my father go through this agony for a stupid lie that I uttered. I decided then and there that I was never going to lie again.

I often think about that episode and wonder, if he had punished me the way we punish our children, whether I would have learned a lesson at all. I don't think so. I would have suffered the punishment and gone on doing the same thing. But this single non-violent action was so powerful that it is still as if it happened yesterday. That is the power of non-violence."

NIFTY DIRECTION

I believe Feb. 08, 2011 will be the crucial date.

A meeting has been fixed between Govt. and Opposition to discuss the upcoming Budget session. Result of this meeting will decide the future course of the Markets.

If Govt. refuses to accept the Oppn. demand for JPC and opposition decides to continue with the blockade of the Parliamentary session. Stability / continuation of this Govt. will in question and we can see sharp fall.

Govt blinks and accepts the demand for JPC we can see an upmove from here onwards. 


Happy trading !
RainMaker

NIFTY FORMING A GARTLEY PATTERN

Posted along side  is a chart of Nifty as it unfolds. It seems that it is making a Gartley pattern. So far symmetry is good. Should it take support at 5530-5560 area and then reverses then Nifty can do 6525-6550.

Gartley is a complex price pattern based on Fibonacci numbers/ratios. It is used to determine buy and sell signals by measuring price retracements of a stock's up and down movement in stock price.

X - 5349
A - 6339
B - 5690
C - 6181
D - ??? ( 5532, 5557, 5560)

X-A = 990
A-B = 649
B-C = 491
C-D = ??? ( 649, 624 )

A-B = .618 OF XA
B-C = .786 OF A-B (almost)

C-D min has to be 1.272% of B-C (624) and max it can be 2.618 of B-C (1285) which can take it to 4895 but that will negate the gartley pattern in totality,  also C-D cannot be more than .786 of X-A and less than .618 of X-A,  hence I presume Nifty to stop some where 5530-5560 range for this pattern.

Today Nifty closed at 5696.50. Posted for academic purposes only. 

Happy Trading !

RainMaker

SUCCESS IN OUR TRADING DEPENDS ON OUR EXITS

This excerpt is from Chuck LeBeau. Chuck happens to be one of the pioneers in the field of trading systems. His wisdom should be absorbed by all:

"[This] happens to be a true story, which contains a very valuable trading lesson that has influenced my trading for many years now. We thought the story might make an interesting topic...Here is the story: Back in the late 1960s I was a young commodity broker at E. F. Hutton and Company. Our office was a brand new high-tech office (for its time) which was considered the "flagship office" for E. F. Hutton. In this office about thirty brokers and as many clients shared one very large boardroom and there were no private offices. The brokers had elegant and expensive desks and the clients had a comfortable seating area in the front of the office where they could hang out and watch the tapes and monitor our state of the art commodity "clacker board". Sitting at my desk near the front of the boardroom I could read my Wall Street Journal and keep track of the commodity markets without looking at the board. By just listening to the rhythm and tempo of the mechanical clicks as the prices changed I could easily tell when anything important was going on because the tempo of the clicks would increase noticeably. Just in front of my desk were a half dozen comfortable sofas facing a high mahogany paneled wall with the tapes and the "clacker board". A gallery of traders, mostly retired "old timers" who were trading real commodities like grains and pork bellies, lounged around on the sofas plotting their charts and talking about life and the markets. They typically arrived early to get a good seat in their usual spot and then spent the day trading, exchanging commentaries and offering unsolicited advice to one another on any subject. For the most part they were a very sociable group who would take coffee breaks together and greeted each other on a first name basis. These traders enjoyed the elegant atmosphere and treated our well-appointed boardroom as their private men's club. (Were you aware that women were not allowed to trade commodities back in those days? My how times have changed!) However, one of these "old timers" kept to himself and was not interested in becoming a member of the friendly and often boisterous social circle. He usually sat quietly by himself intently watching the price changes on the commodity board and holding an old glass Coca-Cola bottle up near his ear. The vintage shaped Coke bottle had been emptied many years before and now contained only a 12-inch tube of bent and broken radio antennae which extended awkwardly out of the top of the bottle. Keep in mind that in the 1960s no one had yet heard of cell phones so the purpose of this Coke bottle was a real mystery to everyone. When the trader would talk to the bottle from time to time all the heads would turn and the traders nearby would try to listen to the conversation. But the trader spoke very softly and no one was able to eavesdrop on his conversations with the bottle. The traders knew that the fellow with the coke bottle was a client of mine and eventually a representative of the group came to me and explained that they were extremely puzzled about this guy and his Coke bottle and asked me if I knew what was going on. I didn't know the purpose or meaning of the Coke bottle but I was as curious as anyone was and I promised I would find out. The next time the client came back to my desk I promptly placed his order and then politely asked him about the Coke bottle. With a serious expression and no embarrassment he explained to me that the Coke bottle was an inter-planetary communication device that had been given to him by aliens. He said that the aliens were very interested in our commodity markets and they often gave him trading advice from their various observation points on other planets. He said that he had just had a message from Mars and they were buying soybeans so he had also purchased soybeans. After revealing his unique trading methodology he returned to his seat and resumed his whispered conversations with the Coke bottle. As soon as I revealed my discovery of the meaning of the Coke bott le to the other traders, all attention was immediately focused on the Coke bottle trader and the soybean market. The soybean market proceeded to go the wrong way and the trade from Mars was eventually closed out at a loss. The other traders were had no sympathy and were quick to begin ridiculing the the trader and poke fun at his beliefs. The next trade however turned out to be a big winner and the Coke bottle trader went from sofa to sofa telling his story and pointing to the clacker board while waiving his Coke bottle and bragging about the profitability of his most recent message from outer space. Because he was making money now his previous critics had to endure his bragging about his success on the current winning trade. As time went on and a few winning and losing trades later a clear pattern of behavior began to emerge. The Coke bottle trader was ridiculed unmercifully on his losing trades but was able to get his revenge and the last laugh during the winning trades. This trader might have been a little bit crazy but he wasn't stupid. He soon learned that his only defense against ridicule was to hold on to winning trades as long as possible and to quickly get out of his losses. As long as he was sitting on his sofa with a winning trade no one could tell him he was crazy and make cruel jokes about his messages from Mars. In fact while he was winning he was quick to wander around the room and ridicule the methods of the other traders who were not making as much money as he was. He displayed the profits in his trading account as hard evidence of the validity of his methods and offered copies of his statements as irrefutable proof that he was getting valuable advice from his alien contacts. Who could argue when his advice from other planets was obviously working? As a young broker this experience and the first hand observation of the Coke bottle trader who suddenly became profitable gave me my first important lesson about the importance of exits. I knew the entry signals had nothing at all to do with his success. His batting average was not any better than that of any other trader. However, this crazy old trader seemed to be able to make money consistently while other traders with more "sanity" and more valid entry methods were losing. Before long I was able to recognize that this man had become a successful trader simply by his efforts to avoid ridicule. He knew that he was vulnerable during his losing trades so he closed them out very promptly. His winning trades became his shield against the ridicule of the other traders and he kept his winners much longer than before his unorthodox methods were revealed. In the many years since this experience I have encountered many claims of success for entry methods that probably have even less validity than the Coke bottle messages. I have learned to look only briefly at the entries of winning traders and to examine their exit strategies very carefully. I am very fortunate that more than thirty years ago I learned from the Coke bottle trader that success in trading depends on our exits and not our entries."Chuck LeBeau