AXIS BANK

AXIS BANK DAILY CHART

In the middle of January Axis Bank made a Low at 367 and from there on until the end of February it remained in a range which with the benefit of hindsight can now be labelled as Wave 1 & Wave 2 where Wave 2 is deep - more than 80% and complex in nature. Wave 3 which traveled up to 545 was an extended wave and was 262% of wave 1 followed by wave 4 which was shallow and simple in nature. As the wave 3 was extended wave 5 was expected to be shorter and it failed to achieve 62% of 0-3 distance in fact it was tad short of 50%. So far everything fits well in the wave theory.

AXIS BANK DAILY CHART

Assuming 5 wave completed at 577 a decent 3 wave decline is expected as in wave 2 / B of higher degree. Also note that this 5 wave move has crossed the reflex point it could be the signal to change of trend and fresh buying can be initiated at the end of 3 wave move down, which can be anticipated at 62% of the whole move or about 162% of wave A as tentatively marked on the chart as of now which gives us the range of 463 – 447 to keep watch on.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

NIFTY: WE ARE STILL IN WAVE 3

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

I am sticking to my count which I had given some time in Aug 2013 as nothing has changed in the hypothesis. Therefore, following is the continuation of the same argument.

Wave 1 started from the low of 4531.15 on 20/12/2011 which took the shape of a Leading Diagonal and ended at 6229.45 and followed by a simple wave 2 correction which corrected 61.8% and made a low of 5119 on 28/08/2013 which marks the beginning of the wave 3. The move that followed had confirmed that NIFTY is in a typical wave 3 move.

Now let us look into the internals of wave 3.

Wave (i) 5119 - 6343

Wave (ii) 6343 - 5933 Little less than 38.2% correction.

Wave (iii) 5933 - 8180 This wave is extended done more that 161.8% (approx 180% of wave (i) )

Wave (iv) 8180 – 7724 This was again a shallow correction done little less than 23.6%

Since we are still in wave 3, the question arises where will it lead us to ? It is presumed that within wave 3, 4 subwaves have been done and now we are witnessing wave 3 (v) .

The typical target for the end of wave (v) and hence the wave 3 comes at

1. 8893 38.2% of zero to wave 3
2. 8948 wave (i) = wave (v); whenever wave (iii) extends.

If we take into consideration the major waves which began from 4531 wave 3 has already covered more than (of wave 1)

1.618 @ 7866

1.707 @ 8017

The next ratio which coincides with the targets anticipated from the internals of wave 3 happens to be

2.236 times of wave 1 and gives target for NIFTY @ 8916. Although 2.0 of wave 1 comes @ 8515 one can keep an eye on this along with the internals of the sub wave (v).

The Confluence of Ratios suggest that we may  have wave 3 ending somewhere in the region of 8893- 8916 - 8948.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

YESBANK: Heading South in the Short Term

YESBANK  WEEKLY CHART

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A CUP & HANDLE PATTERN ON NIFTY

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Nifty Spot  Weekly Chart

Starting from the Low of 2008  a close look gives a kind of feeling that it is forming a Cup & Handle pattern, it is still in a formative stage and hence only my assumption, which may be proven wrong.  

This is another chart Nifty Spot which shows a better rounded formation (because of sudden plunge) and handle also seems to have been done.   One can have his own independent views.  As a trader we know when to and how to enter a trade.

Here is a small write up from  Investopedia on C&H pattern.

This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.   The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle. The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend.

Keep an Eye !

SHEKHAR

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES

Reliance Industires 

Reliance Industries Weekly Chart Sept. 27, 2013
Symetrical Triangle.  Keep an  Eye on the Beakout it may give nice move upto 1647.
Please note Chart is weekly and It may take months to give a BO and my take is Once Nifty bottoms out Reliance will lead the Charge in new  Rally
Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

BHARTI AIRTEL

BHARTI AIRTEL EOD

BHARTI 30 MIN CHART

  After the breakout  Bharti is on a  pullback mode.  330-340 is a crucial zone for Bharti as 200 SMA,   trendline support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement comes in this zone.


It needs careful watch and one can take a long call in this region as and when it comes closer to 325 -340 ranges  with an SL below 308.  We can see higher levels in mid term horizon.


Short term trend is still down  but the volume activity at the lower levels suggest that  we may see some kind of bottom formation /reversal in the coming days. 

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

BREAKOUT STOCK: MARUTI

MARUTI has given a BO on weekly charts after being in  consolidation phase for about a year.  Formation on the charts looks like a breakout from Flag.  Approx height of the flag is 1300 and long term investor / trader can buy here with price TGT of 2700 approx. keeping SL of 1126 on  closing basis. 

There was also an opportunity for short term traders as per daily charts when it broke out of 1400 range,  it is  likely to see a sharp run up from here, one should buy if it comes into trading range somewhere closer to 1400 with SL of 1380.  TGT : 1580>1715>all the way to 2700

Nifty and Bank Nifty has given a nice run up after the breakout.  Nifty is now all set for new highs.  Off-course we may see minor correction in coming days, but the trend is up for sure.

Happy Trading !

JAGRAN PRAKSHAN

Jagran Prakashan has recently acquried Mid-Day, it will add to the foot prints of Jagran in Gujrati and Urdu markets. It's stock price has fallen from 142 levels and now very close to its support of 104, if it sustains here, one can start buying here with trading stop loss of 101 and final stop loss of 91. Below 91 it can see 79 also, which again is a crucial support, where one can initiate fresh buy with a long term view.

CALL : BUY
STOP LOSS: 91
TGT: 152, 164

DABUR INDIA

Dabur is relatively better placed FMCG and operates in niche market. It plans to open 30-35 new stores. Buy in dips with a long term view.

CALL : BUY
STOP LOSS : 157
TARGET : 224 , 236

NECTAR LIFESCIENCES

Nectar Lifesciences is an integrated pharma firm engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing of specialized drugs. It has been doing consistently well.

On charts it has started showing a bit of weakness. One can take advantage and start accumulating in dips up to the level of 32-33 with a long term view.

SYMBOL: NECLIFE
CALL: BUY
TARGET: 55-58
STOP LOSS: 31