NIFTY: Still some steam left before corrections sets in.

NIFTY WEEKLY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

Starting from the lows of 4534 we had wave 1 as a leading diagonal ending at 6229. Wave 2 corrected to 61.8% + levels and thereafter we are enjoying a wave 3 move. (A possibility was suggested as an alternate count last Aug.)

For now W3 has already moved beyond normal i.e. more than 161.8% of wave 1 next possible extension is 176.2% or 200% at 8091 & 8495.

NIFTY 15 MIN CHART

Now look at the internals of wave three starting from 5105 which appears to be nearing completion. W 3 ii retraced merely 38.2% of W 3 i,  the normal end of wave 3 comes at 6181. If we further go down and look into what looks like a wave 3 v, it is forming an Ending Diagonal and we are at W 3 v (4).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 8091 -8161 range we may have a meaningful correction starting from there.

Happy Trading!

SHEKHAR 

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART JAN 2014

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART

Nifty is at a critical juncture at almost previous highs.  Whereas MACD is showing a clear divergence.

LOOK for sell signal   in STS and MACD.  A fall can be anticipated.

If prices closes above the previous high bull run might continue.  As long as Divergence is there up move will be suspect.

Incidentally it also completes a part of C&H pattern as shown in the previous post below. 

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

A CUP & HANDLE PATTERN ON NIFTY

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Nifty Spot  Weekly Chart

Starting from the Low of 2008  a close look gives a kind of feeling that it is forming a Cup & Handle pattern, it is still in a formative stage and hence only my assumption, which may be proven wrong.  

This is another chart Nifty Spot which shows a better rounded formation (because of sudden plunge) and handle also seems to have been done.   One can have his own independent views.  As a trader we know when to and how to enter a trade.

Here is a small write up from  Investopedia on C&H pattern.

This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.   The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle. The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend.

Keep an Eye !

SHEKHAR

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES

Reliance Industires 

Reliance Industries Weekly Chart Sept. 27, 2013
Symetrical Triangle.  Keep an  Eye on the Beakout it may give nice move upto 1647.
Please note Chart is weekly and It may take months to give a BO and my take is Once Nifty bottoms out Reliance will lead the Charge in new  Rally
Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty Alternate Bullish Count

NIFTY LEADING DIAGONAL

This a possible alternate count which starts from lows of 4538   wave 1 being a Leading diagonal now W2 running c = 1.62 * a = 5011.

Although corrections in wave 2 after Leading diagonals are deep and  can retrace upto 80%  4875 approx. 5172 is 61.8% retrace it may also hold by the close of the day one needs to keep an eye on it.


Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

USDINR: Has Rupee Bottomed Out ?

USDINR WEEKLY CHART

Startng from lows of Aug 2007 at 39.06 wave 3 is nearing completion, if it happens to be a normal wave i.e. 161.8% of w1.  

The wave 3 in the weekly chart can be still shown as incomplete (if we go by the form i.e. looking for 5 waves within wave 3 with 3(iv)  and 3(v) yet to be done)  it would be suggestive of greater weakness in the rupee.  For the present I am  assuming that  W3 is likely to close nearer to 161.8 of W1  on weekly chart, and discarding the form.   We can see a slow and grinding larger wave 4 recovering upto Rs 57.

The internal strucutre as seen in hourly chart shows that there is still a small upmove pending and which is likely close around 67.  Expect a mild recovery closer to 63.08 - 62.33 ranges and a final push to 66-67 before a decent recovery in Rupee begins. 

USDINR  HOURLY CHART

NIFTY UPDATE

Wave 3 (1) down is about to end.

NIFTY HOURLY CHART