NIFTY DOWN TREND STARTED

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

It appears that Nifty has completed c of wave B at 6233 and down trend has started  we get a confirmation below 5476.

This down trend starting from 6233 will be  in 5 waves.

This first set of 5 wave (forming wave 1 of C) is likely to end at 5529 as per golden ratio,  if we go down further into the internals of wave 5 it suggests  end point closer to 5555.  So for now I anticipate fall to stop in the range of 5555-5529

NIFTY EOD CHART

There is an outside chance of taking out the previous low of 5476 as wave three was little less than normal- wave 5 could extend,  to confirm the downtrend.

For now wait for a 3 wave up-move to initiate fresh shorts for big gains.  If one can manage to trade, upmove  of 300-400 pts is on cards.

Tentative Road Map for wave C  6233 > 5529 > 5961 > 4820 > 5250 > 4382 necessary correction will be  made as we move along and waves unfold themselves.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

NIFTY WAY FORWARD

NIFTY MEDIUM TERM  VIEW

I had posted a count on Nifty in July 12 and next in Dec 12, I feel that bearish count is still valid and nothing has changed since.

The downmove which started from 6115 in the end of Jan 2013 and reached the low of 5476 has

negated any bullish count starting from the lows 4534 in oct 2011, we can't label it as impulsive wave, simply because of the overlap, unless of course the 3^rd wave itself is subdividing and we are witnessing the 3^rd of 3^rd which implies super bullish trend.

For now, I am still taking this upmove as 'abc' of wave B starting from the Low of 4534, hence 138.2% of wave 'a' comes to 6278 and golden ratio target for internal wave 5 of wave 'c' comes to 6312 , which also happens to be a channel TGT.   

6278-6312 zone should be the end point of this upmove the whole correction ABC for the move starting from the low of Oct 2008 may turnout to be a Flat Correction, ending somewhere close to previous low of 4534.

SHEKHAR

Happy Trading!

HCLTECH UPMOVE DONE !

HCLTECH EOD CHART 

A five wave move seems to have ended.

The five waves are in the following ratio

W2 retraced about 80% of the W1 followed by W3 which went tad higher than 1.618% of W1 and W4 retraced 38.2% of W3. Wave 5 is an extended wave and the possible targets are 718 > >757 >>781.

Now take a look at internal wave structure of W5

W (ii) retraced 61.8% of the previous move and followed by the massive W(iii) which extended close to 400% the next wave W(iv) retraced merely 23% of W(iii). All these move gives us possible end point of W (v) as 731 at 261.8% of W(i) or at 736.5 if taken as per golden ratio.

Woila ! Present move seems to have met resistance at 736.6 for now.

W 5 is an extended wave hence we should get a fast retracement, taking the price close to 500 !  

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

BHARTI AIRTEL

Bharti Airtel  EOD Chart

For Positional Longs wait for correction.
This is an EOD chart for Bharti ARTL,  which clearly shows a five wave move past the reflex point is about to end.  The  estimated end point for wave 5 comes to 360.85,  and we can now look for 3 wave correction before we initiate positional Longs.  Supposing it ends at given tgt  we can expect 50% to 61.8% retracement i.e. look to buy in the range of 300 - 285.


Here is a short Trade for short term

Bharti Airtel  Hourly Chart

Here is a Hrly chart depicting the internal wave structure of the wave 5
w ii  is almost 78% of w i
w iii is 161.8% of w i
w iv is 38.2% of w 3
A normal  wave should have ended at 345 approx.  Here w v has started expanding and the possible TGT could be 359.5  at 100%   from there we can expect fast retracement  into the range of 329 -326.

If we go deeper into the sub wave and take the emerging ratios likely projected end is close to 361.  Hence from the above three we can safely assume that there is a very good chance for  a low risk short entry close to 360  with minimum stoploss  and tgt could be 329-326  and then may be  300-285

Keep in mind wave 5's can keep expanding,  we only know after the end of it.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty 6100

NIFTY  DAILY CHART  NOV 02, 2012

Moving past 5851  confirms the direction and below 5600 negates the view for the time being.

HINUDSTAN UNILIVER LTD (INDIA):

MONTHLY CHART

The charts are self explanatory.
Also on daily chart Wolves Wave  formation is visible (chart not posted).  One can initiate shorts once the  price breaches the upper trend line.  TGT as per WW 440 approx.  and 38% retracement of  W3 (red)  comes closer to 391.

WEEKLY CHART

It is time to keep a close watch on the scrip to initiate shorts.

Weekly charts here shows the internal wave structure of W3 in red colour which starts at 218.

Happy trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty Bearish View

This is an alternative view for the count which believes that correction to the wave starting from the lows of 2009 to the highs of 2010 has ended at 4534 and we are firmly in the uptrend and next impulsive started from 4534. 

So here is the bearish view. 

Chart 1 is a weekly chart. 

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Correction so far from the high of 6341 to 4534  is about 40%  of the previous uptrend which started from 2227.  Remember this is W2 and most of the times it does a retrace closer to 62%.  It almost comes to 3800.   Hence correction is still pending.

Nifty has so far completed  'a'  move and is presently in wave  'b' going up (Starting from the lows of 4534 wave structure so far is 5-3-? (most likely zig zag 5-3-5, Hence b up is on)  once the wave 'c' starts we may see the lower targets

Chart 2 daily chart. 

NIFTY DAILY CHART

Presently b:A 5 wave structure and b:B 3 wave done and b:C is going on, which has to be necessarily a 5 wave structure. Which on equality basis comes to 5812 approx. before any significant down move could unfold.  


Happy Trading ! 

SHEKHAR 

NB: Charts are for NF from GCI, hence values may be at a little variance for true NF values at NSE.