NIFTY: WE ARE STILL IN WAVE 3

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

I am sticking to my count which I had given some time in Aug 2013 as nothing has changed in the hypothesis. Therefore, following is the continuation of the same argument.

Wave 1 started from the low of 4531.15 on 20/12/2011 which took the shape of a Leading Diagonal and ended at 6229.45 and followed by a simple wave 2 correction which corrected 61.8% and made a low of 5119 on 28/08/2013 which marks the beginning of the wave 3. The move that followed had confirmed that NIFTY is in a typical wave 3 move.

Now let us look into the internals of wave 3.

Wave (i) 5119 - 6343

Wave (ii) 6343 - 5933 Little less than 38.2% correction.

Wave (iii) 5933 - 8180 This wave is extended done more that 161.8% (approx 180% of wave (i) )

Wave (iv) 8180 – 7724 This was again a shallow correction done little less than 23.6%

Since we are still in wave 3, the question arises where will it lead us to ? It is presumed that within wave 3, 4 subwaves have been done and now we are witnessing wave 3 (v) .

The typical target for the end of wave (v) and hence the wave 3 comes at

1. 8893 38.2% of zero to wave 3
2. 8948 wave (i) = wave (v); whenever wave (iii) extends.

If we take into consideration the major waves which began from 4531 wave 3 has already covered more than (of wave 1)

1.618 @ 7866

1.707 @ 8017

The next ratio which coincides with the targets anticipated from the internals of wave 3 happens to be

2.236 times of wave 1 and gives target for NIFTY @ 8916. Although 2.0 of wave 1 comes @ 8515 one can keep an eye on this along with the internals of the sub wave (v).

The Confluence of Ratios suggest that we may  have wave 3 ending somewhere in the region of 8893- 8916 - 8948.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

BANK NIFTY

BANK NIFTY  HOURLY CHART

This is an hourly chart of BNF a clear 5 wave fall has completed. Which implies that the correction in Bank Nifty will be a Zig-Zag move i.e. 5-3-5

Now expect a 3 wave recovery which generaly recover 62% of the down move and sometime can extend upto next higher level therefore look for reversal at 62% or go short at 62% with SL a bit above 80% hourly closing basis.


Hopefully one can catch the C wave down from there.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

NIFTY: Still some steam left before corrections sets in.

NIFTY WEEKLY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

Starting from the lows of 4534 we had wave 1 as a leading diagonal ending at 6229. Wave 2 corrected to 61.8% + levels and thereafter we are enjoying a wave 3 move. (A possibility was suggested as an alternate count last Aug.)

For now W3 has already moved beyond normal i.e. more than 161.8% of wave 1 next possible extension is 176.2% or 200% at 8091 & 8495.

NIFTY 15 MIN CHART

Now look at the internals of wave three starting from 5105 which appears to be nearing completion. W 3 ii retraced merely 38.2% of W 3 i,  the normal end of wave 3 comes at 6181. If we further go down and look into what looks like a wave 3 v, it is forming an Ending Diagonal and we are at W 3 v (4).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 8091 -8161 range we may have a meaningful correction starting from there.

Happy Trading!

SHEKHAR 

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART JAN 2014

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART

Nifty is at a critical juncture at almost previous highs.  Whereas MACD is showing a clear divergence.

LOOK for sell signal   in STS and MACD.  A fall can be anticipated.

If prices closes above the previous high bull run might continue.  As long as Divergence is there up move will be suspect.

Incidentally it also completes a part of C&H pattern as shown in the previous post below. 

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

A CUP & HANDLE PATTERN ON NIFTY

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Nifty Spot  Weekly Chart

Starting from the Low of 2008  a close look gives a kind of feeling that it is forming a Cup & Handle pattern, it is still in a formative stage and hence only my assumption, which may be proven wrong.  

This is another chart Nifty Spot which shows a better rounded formation (because of sudden plunge) and handle also seems to have been done.   One can have his own independent views.  As a trader we know when to and how to enter a trade.

Here is a small write up from  Investopedia on C&H pattern.

This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.   The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle. The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend.

Keep an Eye !

SHEKHAR

NIFTY DOWN TREND STARTED

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

It appears that Nifty has completed c of wave B at 6233 and down trend has started  we get a confirmation below 5476.

This down trend starting from 6233 will be  in 5 waves.

This first set of 5 wave (forming wave 1 of C) is likely to end at 5529 as per golden ratio,  if we go down further into the internals of wave 5 it suggests  end point closer to 5555.  So for now I anticipate fall to stop in the range of 5555-5529

NIFTY EOD CHART

There is an outside chance of taking out the previous low of 5476 as wave three was little less than normal- wave 5 could extend,  to confirm the downtrend.

For now wait for a 3 wave up-move to initiate fresh shorts for big gains.  If one can manage to trade, upmove  of 300-400 pts is on cards.

Tentative Road Map for wave C  6233 > 5529 > 5961 > 4820 > 5250 > 4382 necessary correction will be  made as we move along and waves unfold themselves.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

NIFTY WAY FORWARD

NIFTY MEDIUM TERM  VIEW

I had posted a count on Nifty in July 12 and next in Dec 12, I feel that bearish count is still valid and nothing has changed since.

The downmove which started from 6115 in the end of Jan 2013 and reached the low of 5476 has

negated any bullish count starting from the lows 4534 in oct 2011, we can't label it as impulsive wave, simply because of the overlap, unless of course the 3^rd wave itself is subdividing and we are witnessing the 3^rd of 3^rd which implies super bullish trend.

For now, I am still taking this upmove as 'abc' of wave B starting from the Low of 4534, hence 138.2% of wave 'a' comes to 6278 and golden ratio target for internal wave 5 of wave 'c' comes to 6312 , which also happens to be a channel TGT.   

6278-6312 zone should be the end point of this upmove the whole correction ABC for the move starting from the low of Oct 2008 may turnout to be a Flat Correction, ending somewhere close to previous low of 4534.

SHEKHAR

Happy Trading!

Nifty 6100

NIFTY  DAILY CHART  NOV 02, 2012

Moving past 5851  confirms the direction and below 5600 negates the view for the time being.

Nifty Bearish View

This is an alternative view for the count which believes that correction to the wave starting from the lows of 2009 to the highs of 2010 has ended at 4534 and we are firmly in the uptrend and next impulsive started from 4534. 

So here is the bearish view. 

Chart 1 is a weekly chart. 

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Correction so far from the high of 6341 to 4534  is about 40%  of the previous uptrend which started from 2227.  Remember this is W2 and most of the times it does a retrace closer to 62%.  It almost comes to 3800.   Hence correction is still pending.

Nifty has so far completed  'a'  move and is presently in wave  'b' going up (Starting from the lows of 4534 wave structure so far is 5-3-? (most likely zig zag 5-3-5, Hence b up is on)  once the wave 'c' starts we may see the lower targets

Chart 2 daily chart. 

NIFTY DAILY CHART

Presently b:A 5 wave structure and b:B 3 wave done and b:C is going on, which has to be necessarily a 5 wave structure. Which on equality basis comes to 5812 approx. before any significant down move could unfold.  


Happy Trading ! 

SHEKHAR 

NB: Charts are for NF from GCI, hence values may be at a little variance for true NF values at NSE.

Dragons in the Market !

Here is a pattern that was recognized some time ago. The thing about it is that it clearly identifies elements of support and resistance. This pattern identifies short term reversals in the trend which are very tradable.

If you look at the first chart which labels the key elements. The Back will always rise to test the Bottom of the tail-hook (support/resistance). After the second leg is in place you can buy the breakout of the Back price.

Now here is an interesting point that breakout will rise to the level of the top of the tail (support/resistance). If the bottom of the head does not come down and violate the top of the back we have a high probability of continuation.

Check this out for yourself before trading this setup.

Happy Trading !
RainMaker

NIFTY DIRECTION

I believe Feb. 08, 2011 will be the crucial date.

A meeting has been fixed between Govt. and Opposition to discuss the upcoming Budget session. Result of this meeting will decide the future course of the Markets.

If Govt. refuses to accept the Oppn. demand for JPC and opposition decides to continue with the blockade of the Parliamentary session. Stability / continuation of this Govt. will in question and we can see sharp fall.

Govt blinks and accepts the demand for JPC we can see an upmove from here onwards. 


Happy trading !
RainMaker

NIFTY FORMING A GARTLEY PATTERN

Posted along side  is a chart of Nifty as it unfolds. It seems that it is making a Gartley pattern. So far symmetry is good. Should it take support at 5530-5560 area and then reverses then Nifty can do 6525-6550.

Gartley is a complex price pattern based on Fibonacci numbers/ratios. It is used to determine buy and sell signals by measuring price retracements of a stock's up and down movement in stock price.

X - 5349
A - 6339
B - 5690
C - 6181
D - ??? ( 5532, 5557, 5560)

X-A = 990
A-B = 649
B-C = 491
C-D = ??? ( 649, 624 )

A-B = .618 OF XA
B-C = .786 OF A-B (almost)

C-D min has to be 1.272% of B-C (624) and max it can be 2.618 of B-C (1285) which can take it to 4895 but that will negate the gartley pattern in totality,  also C-D cannot be more than .786 of X-A and less than .618 of X-A,  hence I presume Nifty to stop some where 5530-5560 range for this pattern.

Today Nifty closed at 5696.50. Posted for academic purposes only. 

Happy Trading !

RainMaker

Nifty Down Trend Begins

Nifty has finally closed below the pivot.  Halting the intermediate up trend,  formation of Lower high will confirm the  down trend.  Trend for Nifty remains down until it gives closing above 6340.    5746, 5562,  5379  are the levels to watch from here on, if the intermediate down trend is confirmed.  On every rise sell Nifty.

BREAK OUT STOCK: ESSAROIL

Essar Oil has given a break out from cup & holder formation on daily charts. Possible TGT is 173. one can buy here with SL below 142.

Also on weekly charts it has given a decent break out with good volumes one can hold the position with a deeper SL below 136 for possible higher targets.

Nifty is quite volatile these days, one should avoid short positions in nifty for the time being.

Happy Trading !

RainMaker

DIVERGENCE ON NIFTY

Here is a divergence on Nifty.
Chart is nifty spot EOD
Take entry only after STS crossover with SL
TGTs can be 5200>5120>5040

INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS

Trading levels for Nifty (spot level)for Today

Happy Trading !

SWING TRADING LEVELS

SWING LEVELS FOR BANKNIFTY AND NIFTY

Happy Trading !

INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS

Posted above are Intraday Trading levels for June 28, based on Friday's Price movement of Nifty and Bank Nifty

Happy Trading !

INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS

Posted above are Intraday Trading levels for June 25, based on today's Price movement of Nifty and Bank Nifty

Happy Trading !

INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS

Posted above are Intraday Trading levels for June 24, based on today's Price movement of Nifty and Bank Nifty

Happy Trading !