AXIS BANK

AXIS BANK DAILY CHART

In the middle of January Axis Bank made a Low at 367 and from there on until the end of February it remained in a range which with the benefit of hindsight can now be labelled as Wave 1 & Wave 2 where Wave 2 is deep - more than 80% and complex in nature. Wave 3 which traveled up to 545 was an extended wave and was 262% of wave 1 followed by wave 4 which was shallow and simple in nature. As the wave 3 was extended wave 5 was expected to be shorter and it failed to achieve 62% of 0-3 distance in fact it was tad short of 50%. So far everything fits well in the wave theory.

AXIS BANK DAILY CHART

Assuming 5 wave completed at 577 a decent 3 wave decline is expected as in wave 2 / B of higher degree. Also note that this 5 wave move has crossed the reflex point it could be the signal to change of trend and fresh buying can be initiated at the end of 3 wave move down, which can be anticipated at 62% of the whole move or about 162% of wave A as tentatively marked on the chart as of now which gives us the range of 463 – 447 to keep watch on.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

RCOM; UPDATE

RCOM DAILY CHART

If some body is interested in RCOM here is the latest update. 
Refer my earlier post here:  RCOM: An Elliot Wave Analysis

SHEKHAR

NIFTY: WE ARE STILL IN WAVE 3

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

I am sticking to my count which I had given some time in Aug 2013 as nothing has changed in the hypothesis. Therefore, following is the continuation of the same argument.

Wave 1 started from the low of 4531.15 on 20/12/2011 which took the shape of a Leading Diagonal and ended at 6229.45 and followed by a simple wave 2 correction which corrected 61.8% and made a low of 5119 on 28/08/2013 which marks the beginning of the wave 3. The move that followed had confirmed that NIFTY is in a typical wave 3 move.

Now let us look into the internals of wave 3.

Wave (i) 5119 - 6343

Wave (ii) 6343 - 5933 Little less than 38.2% correction.

Wave (iii) 5933 - 8180 This wave is extended done more that 161.8% (approx 180% of wave (i) )

Wave (iv) 8180 – 7724 This was again a shallow correction done little less than 23.6%

Since we are still in wave 3, the question arises where will it lead us to ? It is presumed that within wave 3, 4 subwaves have been done and now we are witnessing wave 3 (v) .

The typical target for the end of wave (v) and hence the wave 3 comes at

1. 8893 38.2% of zero to wave 3
2. 8948 wave (i) = wave (v); whenever wave (iii) extends.

If we take into consideration the major waves which began from 4531 wave 3 has already covered more than (of wave 1)

1.618 @ 7866

1.707 @ 8017

The next ratio which coincides with the targets anticipated from the internals of wave 3 happens to be

2.236 times of wave 1 and gives target for NIFTY @ 8916. Although 2.0 of wave 1 comes @ 8515 one can keep an eye on this along with the internals of the sub wave (v).

The Confluence of Ratios suggest that we may  have wave 3 ending somewhere in the region of 8893- 8916 - 8948.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

CROMPTON GREAVES: TIME TO BUY FOR SHORT TERM

CROPMTON GREAVES DAILY CHART is enclosed with Elliot wave marking.  It is easy to deduce the following.

1. W2 is simple and corrected more than 50%
2. W3 is bit larger than 162% of W1
3. W4 is a complex correction with W 4(c) ending
at 38.2% of W3(subwave a equals subwave c)
4. 1st TGT for W5 will be 232. SL 175.75

Also note that on weekly charts price has made a hammer today. One can long above it with SL below the hammer i.e. 175.75

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

Crompton Greaves Daily Chart

BANK NIFTY

BANK NIFTY  HOURLY CHART

This is an hourly chart of BNF a clear 5 wave fall has completed. Which implies that the correction in Bank Nifty will be a Zig-Zag move i.e. 5-3-5

Now expect a 3 wave recovery which generaly recover 62% of the down move and sometime can extend upto next higher level therefore look for reversal at 62% or go short at 62% with SL a bit above 80% hourly closing basis.


Hopefully one can catch the C wave down from there.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

HINDALCO: Possible Fifth wave has begun

HINDALCO DAILY CHART

HINDALCO:  If not already Long.  Go long above HRLY pivot  at 166.5.

or

Buy if price gets in the rage of 145-150  on HRly chart that is about 50% - 62% retrace of five wave move as visible on hrly chart

HINDALCO HOURLY CHART

Target for this up move is minimum 204.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

RELIANCE CAPITAL : Time to Buy

RELCAPITAL

Time has come when one should be ready to buy this stock.  Possible target could be minimum 668.9  that is the high of wave 3. Sometimes wave 5 do get shortened but that is an exception.

RELIANCE CAPITAL HOURLY CHART

Keep a close eye on Hourly chart it will give better guidance for Entry.

Happy Trading!
SHEKHAR


Pl correct: 61.8% of wave 3= 443 approx

YESBANK: Heading South in the Short Term

YESBANK  WEEKLY CHART

.....

RCOM: An Elliot Wave Analysis

RCOM DAILY CHART

Starting from the low of 46.55 on 30/08/2013 RCOM was in an impulsive move which ended at 164.65 on 17/09/2013 a clear five wave up move can been observed.

17/09/2013 onwards RCOM is in correction mode wave a made a low of 106.75 followed by wave b up move which ended at 157.25 about 80% retrace of wave a.

Wave c down has started from 157.25 which is still continuing. A 61.8% retrace of the previous impulse comes at approx 91 and for now wave c has made a low of 93.05 on 26/09/2014.

Has wave c ended  thus the correction completed ? The next impulsive wave is about to begin ???

Let us look closely into the wave c. Wave c always consist of 5 subwaves, here we can visualise that presently RCOM is in c (iii) (still on). c (iv) and c (v) are still to unfold.

Keeping all the above in mind we can for sure say that there is still some more downside left in the RCOM.

Where can this downfall end ? Some reasonable estimate/guess can be at 74-77 range which happens to be 76.4% retrace of the impulsive move and also 138.2% extension of corrective wave a. Confluence of Fibo ratios is one important region to lookout for.

If it goes deeper than the next lower level could be 64 approx. which happens to be 161.8% of the wave a what is quite normal for wave c to travel.

Once we are able to define the end point of wave c (iii) we will have a better estimation where the wave c could end. So keep a watch on the internals of wave c and catch the next BIG MOVE UP !!!

Happy trading !

SHEKHAR

NB: All Fibo values are approximation on visual basis they are not calculated values.

NIFTY: Still some steam left before corrections sets in.

NIFTY WEEKLY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

Starting from the lows of 4534 we had wave 1 as a leading diagonal ending at 6229. Wave 2 corrected to 61.8% + levels and thereafter we are enjoying a wave 3 move. (A possibility was suggested as an alternate count last Aug.)

For now W3 has already moved beyond normal i.e. more than 161.8% of wave 1 next possible extension is 176.2% or 200% at 8091 & 8495.

NIFTY 15 MIN CHART

Now look at the internals of wave three starting from 5105 which appears to be nearing completion. W 3 ii retraced merely 38.2% of W 3 i,  the normal end of wave 3 comes at 6181. If we further go down and look into what looks like a wave 3 v, it is forming an Ending Diagonal and we are at W 3 v (4).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 8091 -8161 range we may have a meaningful correction starting from there.

Happy Trading!

SHEKHAR 

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART JAN 2014

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART

Nifty is at a critical juncture at almost previous highs.  Whereas MACD is showing a clear divergence.

LOOK for sell signal   in STS and MACD.  A fall can be anticipated.

If prices closes above the previous high bull run might continue.  As long as Divergence is there up move will be suspect.

Incidentally it also completes a part of C&H pattern as shown in the previous post below. 

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

A CUP & HANDLE PATTERN ON NIFTY

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Nifty Spot  Weekly Chart

Starting from the Low of 2008  a close look gives a kind of feeling that it is forming a Cup & Handle pattern, it is still in a formative stage and hence only my assumption, which may be proven wrong.  

This is another chart Nifty Spot which shows a better rounded formation (because of sudden plunge) and handle also seems to have been done.   One can have his own independent views.  As a trader we know when to and how to enter a trade.

Here is a small write up from  Investopedia on C&H pattern.

This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.   The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle. The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend.

Keep an Eye !

SHEKHAR

NIFTY DOWN TREND STARTED

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

It appears that Nifty has completed c of wave B at 6233 and down trend has started  we get a confirmation below 5476.

This down trend starting from 6233 will be  in 5 waves.

This first set of 5 wave (forming wave 1 of C) is likely to end at 5529 as per golden ratio,  if we go down further into the internals of wave 5 it suggests  end point closer to 5555.  So for now I anticipate fall to stop in the range of 5555-5529

NIFTY EOD CHART

There is an outside chance of taking out the previous low of 5476 as wave three was little less than normal- wave 5 could extend,  to confirm the downtrend.

For now wait for a 3 wave up-move to initiate fresh shorts for big gains.  If one can manage to trade, upmove  of 300-400 pts is on cards.

Tentative Road Map for wave C  6233 > 5529 > 5961 > 4820 > 5250 > 4382 necessary correction will be  made as we move along and waves unfold themselves.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

NIFTY WAY FORWARD

NIFTY MEDIUM TERM  VIEW

I had posted a count on Nifty in July 12 and next in Dec 12, I feel that bearish count is still valid and nothing has changed since.

The downmove which started from 6115 in the end of Jan 2013 and reached the low of 5476 has

negated any bullish count starting from the lows 4534 in oct 2011, we can't label it as impulsive wave, simply because of the overlap, unless of course the 3^rd wave itself is subdividing and we are witnessing the 3^rd of 3^rd which implies super bullish trend.

For now, I am still taking this upmove as 'abc' of wave B starting from the Low of 4534, hence 138.2% of wave 'a' comes to 6278 and golden ratio target for internal wave 5 of wave 'c' comes to 6312 , which also happens to be a channel TGT.   

6278-6312 zone should be the end point of this upmove the whole correction ABC for the move starting from the low of Oct 2008 may turnout to be a Flat Correction, ending somewhere close to previous low of 4534.

SHEKHAR

Happy Trading!

BHARTI AIRTEL

Bharti Airtel  EOD Chart

For Positional Longs wait for correction.
This is an EOD chart for Bharti ARTL,  which clearly shows a five wave move past the reflex point is about to end.  The  estimated end point for wave 5 comes to 360.85,  and we can now look for 3 wave correction before we initiate positional Longs.  Supposing it ends at given tgt  we can expect 50% to 61.8% retracement i.e. look to buy in the range of 300 - 285.


Here is a short Trade for short term

Bharti Airtel  Hourly Chart

Here is a Hrly chart depicting the internal wave structure of the wave 5
w ii  is almost 78% of w i
w iii is 161.8% of w i
w iv is 38.2% of w 3
A normal  wave should have ended at 345 approx.  Here w v has started expanding and the possible TGT could be 359.5  at 100%   from there we can expect fast retracement  into the range of 329 -326.

If we go deeper into the sub wave and take the emerging ratios likely projected end is close to 361.  Hence from the above three we can safely assume that there is a very good chance for  a low risk short entry close to 360  with minimum stoploss  and tgt could be 329-326  and then may be  300-285

Keep in mind wave 5's can keep expanding,  we only know after the end of it.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty 6100

NIFTY  DAILY CHART  NOV 02, 2012

Moving past 5851  confirms the direction and below 5600 negates the view for the time being.

HINUDSTAN UNILIVER LTD (INDIA):

MONTHLY CHART

The charts are self explanatory.
Also on daily chart Wolves Wave  formation is visible (chart not posted).  One can initiate shorts once the  price breaches the upper trend line.  TGT as per WW 440 approx.  and 38% retracement of  W3 (red)  comes closer to 391.

WEEKLY CHART

It is time to keep a close watch on the scrip to initiate shorts.

Weekly charts here shows the internal wave structure of W3 in red colour which starts at 218.

Happy trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty Bearish View

This is an alternative view for the count which believes that correction to the wave starting from the lows of 2009 to the highs of 2010 has ended at 4534 and we are firmly in the uptrend and next impulsive started from 4534. 

So here is the bearish view. 

Chart 1 is a weekly chart. 

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Correction so far from the high of 6341 to 4534  is about 40%  of the previous uptrend which started from 2227.  Remember this is W2 and most of the times it does a retrace closer to 62%.  It almost comes to 3800.   Hence correction is still pending.

Nifty has so far completed  'a'  move and is presently in wave  'b' going up (Starting from the lows of 4534 wave structure so far is 5-3-? (most likely zig zag 5-3-5, Hence b up is on)  once the wave 'c' starts we may see the lower targets

Chart 2 daily chart. 

NIFTY DAILY CHART

Presently b:A 5 wave structure and b:B 3 wave done and b:C is going on, which has to be necessarily a 5 wave structure. Which on equality basis comes to 5812 approx. before any significant down move could unfold.  


Happy Trading ! 

SHEKHAR 

NB: Charts are for NF from GCI, hence values may be at a little variance for true NF values at NSE.

RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS

After going through the Pankaj's super bullish views on RCom  spent some time on the charts.  Two charts are posted below.  Rcom is still in the bearish mode.  A 5 wave  impulsive down has completed and a correction to that move is going on.

Presently Rcom is in  B c iii  there is still room for more down side,  before the upmove  in wave C begins.  There is still an outside chance that it may not be a B down but  W 2  but I believe otherwise simply because that it has moved too close to the lows of so called W1   yet technically possible that W3 starts from there as Pankaj thinks.  Well  wave B can go below the lows of A as in  irregular corrections.

W 3  or W  C  both offers an opportunity to  mint great money,  so keep an eye.  I will take a ride once I see some sign of reversal,  although I might buy a little expensive.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

COPPER UPDATE

  Copper has acheived almost 50% retracement level  as suggested in the previous posts.  Further move depends upon the key levels marked on the chart.  Dominant view is downwards as sugggested previously.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR